Austin Reaves is good — but can the Lakers afford to keep him?
The Lakers will be in a financial bind this offseason.
The Los Angeles Lakers are going to have some tough decisions to make this summer about the future of their roster.
After posting a paltry 27-32 record to start the year, the front office shook things up at the trade deadline. Russell Westbrook and Patrick Beverley were sent out of town while a quartet of young players were ushered in; D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley and Rui Hachimura have all boosted the Lakers’ depth, helping them climb their way back up the Western Conference standings. Now, sitting eighth in that conference, the Lakers are within reach of the playoffs.
Beyond this season, the roster situation is murky. Among these recent acquisitions, only Vanderbilt is signed on for next season. In fact, the Lakers only have four guaranteed contracts for 2023-24; LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Max Christie and Vanderbilt. The combined value of these four contracts alone is an estimated $94 million in guaranteed money — leaving the Lakers front office with less than half their salary cap with which to fill out the majority of their roster. This will put the Lakers dangerously close to the luxury tax yet again — especially so if they agree to bring back Russell, Hachimura and Beasley.
Russell and Hachimura will both enter unrestricted free agency this summer, while Beasley’s option, to be exercised by June 29th, is held by the Lakers, giving them a bit of flexibility. Russell, who is making $31 million this season, is likely to command another lucrative contract, while Hachimura and Beasley could command anywhere from $10-15 million each in 2023-24.
Given the success the Lakers have enjoyed since the trade deadline, it would be in the front office’s best interest to consider retaining if not all of these players, at least a subset of them. They have vastly improved the Lakers’ depth of scoring and have given them greater positional versatility. They have been key components of the team’s league-best defensive rating since the trade deadline; their 110.5 mark is nearly an entire point better than the next-best defence.
If the Lakers do end up in the luxury tax, they’ll still have their taxpayer mid-level exception available to them. The MLE is projected to be somewhere around $13 million for 2023-24, giving them some additional salary to use as they wish, either to bring back one of these guys or to acquire new talent.
This whole situation is already complex enough, but there’s another player who must be accounted for as the Lakers try to balance their books for next season — a certain Newark, Arkansas native called Austin Reaves.
The star sophomore, who has been one of the Lakers’ most important players this season, will enter restricted free agency this summer. Certain reports over the past few weeks have indicated that Reaves could be in line for a big payday this offseason — as per Danny Leroux of The Athletic, in the right situation Reaves could earn a contract worth up to $98.67 million.
I won’t go into gory detail about Reaves’ contract situation — that has already been masterfully done here and here — but I’ll give a brief summary below:
Reaves is a restricted free agent, meaning that the Lakers have the right to match any offer sheet a team throws his way. A team with the requisite combination of interest and cap space could offer Reaves a contract worth up to $98.67 million over four years, including Reaves’ maximum salary in the final two years of the deal. This figure represents more money than the Lakers can offer him with their limited cap room, so it is in Reaves’ financial interest that a team produces an offer sheet.
The offering team would also need to be able to pay the average value of the contract in year one — for complicated CBA reasons enumerated here — and would also need to be willing to tie up their cap space until July 8th until the Lakers make a final decision. If the Lakers decide to match the offer sheet, bringing Reaves back to SoCal for next season, the offering team could miss out on other big-name free agents.
Can the Lakers afford to pay Reaves?
If there is interest in Reaves across the league, it could be an expensive endeavour for the Lakers to bring him back.
Let’s say a team offers Reaves the maximum contract he is eligible to receive — $98.67 million over four years — the Lakers would have to match the offer sheet, paying him roughly $24.6 million next year. Assuming that the Lakers manage to re-sign the trio mentioned above, using only modest estimates of those contract values, here’s what their cap sheet would look like:
This would leave the Lakers already over the luxury tax threshold with seven roster spots left to fill. In order to fill the vacant ones, they would likely need to dip into the tax considerably and could be looking at a hefty bill as a result.
The Lakers do have some resources available to them to fill out the remainder of their roster without dipping too far into the tax. As mentioned, they will have their MLE available — an additional $13 million that won’t count against the tax — as well as two picks in this summer’s draft.
Realistically, though, bringing Reaves back will take some creativity from the Lakers’ front office. It might mean having to offer Russell a slightly less expensive contract. It might mean declining Beasley’s player option in order to free up some additional salary. It might mean having a slightly top-heavy roster, something that the Lakers haven’t been strangers to over the past few seasons.
Ultimately, though, we don’t know how the front office feels about paying Reaves a lucrative deal this offseason. It’s possible that they’re enthusiastic about it. It’s also possible they’re asking themselves if it’s worth the financial headache:
It is worth re-signing Reaves, a second-year undrafted player who has come off the bench for most of his tenure? Reaves, the undersized forward who doesn’t jump out in any single statistical category? Do we want to pay that player $98.67 million over four years?
Questions like these would be totally justified. I don’t have answers for them, but I’ll tell you why the Lakers should at least consider keeping him around.
Why Reaves is valuable to the Lakers
Reaves is an incredibly efficient offensive player. He’s one of only ten guards leaguewide to have posted an eFG% of 0.60 or better this season — putting his efficiency on par with some of the league’s elite shooters, such as Steph Curry, Joe Harris, Luke Kennard and Gary Harris.
Interestingly, Reaves differs from these players in that he isn’t an exceptional three-point shooter. At 38%, he’s certainly above average in this regard, but is not considered an elite marksman. Instead, Reaves manages to maintain such high efficiency numbers while subsisting primarily on a midrange shot diet.
Reaves is a crafty scorer in the pick-and-roll, where he’s skilled at keeping his defender on his back as he snakes his way into open jumpers. Over a third of his shots come from the midrange, and he makes 50% of his attempts from there, placing him in the 88th percentile among wings. Reaves doesn’t get to the rim often, but he has made a whopping 81% of his shots at the rim — an incredible rate for someone of his size and stature.
On the occasions where he doesn’t make his shots, he’s often drawing fouls. He’s masterful at baiting his defenders into tough positions, using his momentum and balance to his advantage, à la Harden or Young. Reaves is being fouled on 20.6% of his shot attempts, more than any other wing — a positional archetype that includes more physically imposing slashers and drivers. Reaves converts his free throws at a respectable 85.5%.
Head coach Darvin Ham has been vocal about the importance of getting to the free throw line, and Reaves allows them to lean hard into this strategy. The Lakers make eight more free throws per 100 field goal attempts when Reaves is on the court, more than 99 percent of wings.
Incredibly, Reaves has achieved all of this while only attempting 7.4 shots per game. What does this say about the sophomore? That he doesn’t force the issue offensively, is very deliberate about getting to his spots, and is efficient at finishing plays when he does decide to shoot.
Reaves is also able to create for his teammates. Averaging only 3.2 assists per game, he’s not going to blow anyone away with his playmaking abilities, but he capable of finding his teammates in advantageous situations. Reaves ranks in the 90th percentile among wings in assist-to-usage rate, a metric that measures how often a player records an assist given how much they had the ball.
Concerns about Reaves
Of course, there are some concerns about Reaves that are important to note. Defensively, his size relative to his position hurts his ability to guard. He’s too small to body up against most wings, and too slow to hang with most guards. His case is helped by the fact that he’s physical and a hard worker, but the physical limitations of his body are going to limit his overall defensive ceiling. Fortunately for Reaves, the Lakers have vastly improved their team defence and are now one of the best defensive squads in the league. If he’s struggling defensively, the team isn’t suffering as a result.
It has yet to be seen if Reaves can continue his efficient offensive production in an increased role. Ham only just inserted him into the starting lineup for the first time last week, a trend that will likely continue until the end of the season since Reaves has been arguably their third-best player.
It’s unlikely that Reaves continues to post such high efficiency numbers in an expanded role; few players do. But given his potential as an offensive weapon, it’s possible that the Lakers would want to invest in his future. The Lakers need offensive weapons not named LeBron James or Anthony Davis, neither of whom can be relied upon to take the court on a given night. Reaves boosts the floor of this ball club on night when one or both of their stars are out, and only helps things run even more smoothly when they’re at full strength.
With Reaves, the good appears to outweigh the bad. He’s one of the most efficient offensive players in the NBA, with lots of room still to grow. His weaknesses as a player are few, and given his approach toward the game, you know he’s going to put in the work to shore up the holes in his game. Ultimately, the biggest question around bringing Reaves back will likely be a financial one.
This is one of the pitfalls of constructing a roster centred around two players who eat up nearly $90 million of yearly salary — there’s not a whole lot of room with which to pay the rest of your roster. The Lakers should primarily be trying to surround their stars with players who punch above their weight in terms of contract value, which usually means rookies, veteran minimum players and undrafted players.
If the Lakers stick with Reaves, they’d be investing in one of the most promising young players in the NBA. If they let him go, they’d be justified in doing so — but don’t be surprised if he finds success elsewhere.