Nick Nurse has a chance to find some offence on his bench. Will he take it?
Much of the narrative surrounding the Raptors this offseason was the need to add some depth to a team that lacked it last year. The Raptors relied more on their first five than any team in the NBA, as their usual group (VanVleet, Siakam, Barnes, Trent and Anunoby) all finished in the top 25 leaguewide in minutes per game. Such a heavy burden placed upon this group was unsustainable, and it took its toll on their health.
VanVleet in particular felt the effects, suffering a knee injury right after the All-Star break that would sideline him for 10 games throughout the latter half of the year. The wear and tear on his body was evident during the Raptors’ first-round playoff series against the Sixers — a series that the Raptors lost in no small part due to Fred’s inability to play his usual brand of tough-nosed defense and offensive creation. He wasn’t the same aggressive player, and ultimately missed the final two games of the series with a hip injury as his team fell in Game 6 to the eminently beatable Sixers.
The front office made some moves this offseason, ostensibly to avoid this kind of scenario in the future. They filled some glaring holes in the roster — the signing of veteran Otto Porter brings defence and shooting to the Raptors’ bench, while rookie big Christian Koloko brings size and rim protection. These additions were supposed to add depth to Nick Nurse’s rotation, giving him the confidence that his bench can hang.
Through three games, though, it’s been the same story. Already in this young season, VanVleet, Siakam, Trent and Anunoby once again rank in the top 20 leaguewide in minutes per game. Outside of the starters, the only two Raptors averaging double-digit minutes are Precious Achiuwa and Koloko. The Raptors rank dead last in the NBA in bench minutes per game. Only four other total Raptors have seen the court so far this year.
On one hand, it’s understandable why Nurse might feel the need to rely so much on his starters early in the year. The Raptors are a competitive team battling for a playoff spot — and during a tough start to the season where the Raptors must face a slew of quality Eastern Conference foes, they haven’t had their full contingent of players available to them. Chris Boucher missed the first three games with a hamstring injury, while Otto Porter continues to be out of the lineup with the same affliction.
The unique skillsets that these two bring to the table simply aren’t replaceable by the Raptors’ other reserves — Boucher the energy guy who rebounds and blocks shots, Porter the defensive ace who shoots the three-ball with efficiency. Without them, it feels like at least one or two starters need to remain on the court simply to give the Raptors a fighting chance. The Raptors want to be longer, quicker, and more defensively attuned than their opponents while still being able to tread water in the half court — and, looking down the bench, there doesn’t appear to be a viable lineup capable of executing that gameplan.
Nurse also needs to give certain starters time to adjust to their changing roles. They’re putting the ball in Scottie’s hands a lot more, giving him the opportunity to make reads. He’ll act as a primary offensive initiator, while Fred has shifted to a primarily off-ball role to capitalize on his catch-and-shoot game. The more reps they can get early in the season in these roles, the better.
On the other hand, now might be just as good a time as any to give the bench guys a run. With Scottie out of the lineup, Pascal is having to create pretty much all of Toronto’s offence singlehandedly. With averages of 26.5 points, 10 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game, he can get pretty much whatever he wants — however, as we saw during the pair of Miami games, defences are already starting to key in on him, making it all the more imperative for Nurse to have access to secondary playmakers.
Beyond Pascal and Scottie, the Raptors have struggled to find much offensive creation. Fred has looked sometimes passive playing off the ball, only getting up 29 shots in their first three games. This has been somewhat dispiriting to witness, but we know he’ll figure it out. His catch-and-shoot game is elite — and when his shot is falling, the defence plays him tight, allowing him to get into the lane and find his teammates for open looks. It will come.
The OG-as-offensive-creator experiment, conversely, isn’t such a sure thing. He continues to look uncomfortable on drives and isolations. Through three games, OG drove the ball 23 times, shooting a paltry 2-of-11 while recording more turnovers (2) than assists (1). He needs to get better at shielding the ball from defenders, as he’s had the ball stripped away on numerous occasions this year. This is to say nothing of OG’s defence, which is elite and really the primary reason Nurse has him in the starting lineup, but offensively it’s been a rocky start.
Last night’s Heat game was a good test for this team, as they were forced to look beyond Pascal for offence — to great success. Miami guarded the Cameroonian as well as anyone, waiting until he begun his patented spin move to collapse the defence, then stonewalled him before he could get to the front of the rim. This forced Pascal to give up the ball, and fortunately the Raptors’ shooters were locked and loaded — Freddie hit an efficient 4-of-6 from beyond while Gary Trent Jr. managed 4-of-12.
But what happens when the three isn’t falling? Against teams like the Heat who gum up the paint in order to counter Pascal’s paint prowess, you need other guys you can rely on to get you a bucket. Nurse has some talent on his bench that could fill this role. Malachi, for all of his defensive deficiencies, is a solid backup guard who can shoot the three. He hit a couple crucial ones in the Raptors’ comeback effort on Saturday night in South Beach. His slight frame makes it tough for him to get too far into the paint, but he’s got a nice mid-range jumper that could be effective coming off, say, a Koloko high ball screen. Chris Boucher can create offence simply by crashing the offensive boards, getting putback dunks and drawing fouls, and Nurse will be happy to have him back in the lineup as part of the bench contingent. Further down, Jeff Dowtin is the kind of player that can penetrate the defence and get right to his spots, although he’ll likely be spending most of his time in Mississauga with the 905. Definitely an intriguing piece for the future, though.
If it weren’t for the warning signs of last season, Nurse’s early-season rotation patterns wouldn’t be so notable. It’s just that we’ve seen this movie before — and the Raptors made offseason acquisitions precisely to address some of these depth issues.
Nurse has been clear that he wants to run a deeper rotation, but we’ve yet to see that philosophy in practice. At the start of training camp, he said “I think there’s a lot of guys who can start. I think that’s just the modern NBA — there’s more than five guys who can start a game.” So, what’s holding him back?
Winning is surely the driving factor — but in order for this team to rise above the pack from playoff team to serious contender, it will have to be their bench that rises to the challenge. Whether it’s devoting some extra playing time to the existing bench guys or making a trade to acquire some better ones, it’s the Raptors’ bench that will determine how far they can go. With Scottie and Otto out of the lineup, some minutes have opened up — a prime opportunity for a reserve to get an extended look. We’ll see if Nurse takes advantage.