Raptors season preview: 2022-23
What are the central questions for the Raptors this season?
As the Raptors wrap up their preseason, I’m looking at some of the most compelling storylines around this team and examining some of the main factors that will have bearing on this team’s success, both this season and in future seasons.
For those who have been watching Raptors preseason … basketball? I guess it’s basketball. Yeah, let’s go with that. Don’t despair. We’re almost certainly not going to shoot sub-25% from beyond this season (though I’m not terribly convinced we’ll shoot a heck of a lot better than that), and we’ll have a better offensive flow once certain guys get settled into their new offensive roles.
Be prepared — certain moments are going to be ugly. When Precious Achiuwa commits three offensive fouls in a row by barreling into the defence on the fast break, you’re going to want to look away. When Scottie Barnes attempts a no-look pass that Khem Birch wasn’t expecting and that ends up in the tenth row, you’re going to cringe. But you’re going to have to trust me — stay the course. Trust in Masai and Bobby. Soon enough, those plays are going to be the exception rather than the rule. For every offensive foul, we’ll have a Precious Achiuwa pull-up three. For every missed no-look pass, we’ll have Scottie Barnes turnaround jumper over LeBron that makes us froth at the mouth. Trust the process.
We very well might have something special with this team. We certainly have something unique, and that’s how all great dynasties start. What are you going to do that changes the game? That makes all other teams adjust to you, instead of vice-versa?
In the meantime, let’s enjoy every little step along the way. Every Pascal Siakam spin move, every Dalano Banton fingerroll (the ice-man!), every Jack Armstrong “Bonjooooour” on the TSN broadcast, every Fred VanVleet celebratory dance (and subsequent fine). Regardless of the destination, let’s tuck in and enjoy the ride.
How good can Scottie Barnes be?
The central question for the Raptors this season concerns none other than their wunderkind sophomore, Scottie Barnes. Their ceiling this year will likely be capped by his progression — so, how good can Scottie be? And how can he help the Raptors improve their standing in an ever-deepening Eastern Conference?
What drove Scottie’s first-year success was his tenacity on the offensive end. Scottie is at his best when he’s going downhill with a head of steam, putting his shoulder into the defender and powering his way to the rim — a quality that calls to mind his teammate, Pascal Siakam. Scottie’s length affords him the confidence that his shot will not get blocked, while his speed and ability to square his shoulders to the hoop allow him to be accurate, even while contorting his body in mid-air.
Scottie is also a persistent rebounder, and one of the best on the offensive boards for his size. Among players who played 40 games or more last season, Scottie ranked 18th in the league in offensive rebounds per game — and at 6’9”was the third-shortest in that group. Much like Zion Williamson, Scottie is skilled at anticipating his own misses and using his ever-forward momentum to gobble them up for put-back finishes.
At this point in his career, Scottie operates pretty much exclusively within 15 feet of the basket — in fact, 70% of his shot attempts come from within the free throw line. He doesn’t have much of a three-point game to speak of, though at 30% from beyond, his jumper isn’t broken by any means. He’s capable of hitting the occasional catch-and-shoot three, and all indications are that he’s been working on that aspect of his game over the summer.
Scottie’s game is still going to be extremely valuable to this Raptors team, even without the jumper. In an NBA landscape of spread pick-and-rolls and superhuman shooters warping defences way out beyond the three-point line, there is considerable metagame value in having a player who can operate in the midrange. If he doesn’t have the shot or a lane to the hoop, he’ll usually find his teammates in advantageous positions, sometimes creating a basket out of nowhere.
The Eastern Conference got deeper this summer, and for the Raptors to stand out above the pack, they’ll need more shooting. In order to free up their shooters, the Raptors will look to Pascal and Scottie, whose offensive gravity going downhill commands the defence’s attention in the middle of the floor. This will open up passing and driving lanes for their teammates — particularly for Fred VanVleet, who Nurse is going to play off the ball more often this season to take advantage of his elite catch-and-shoot game. Pascal already attracts a double team on the regular, but if Scottie becomes a dangerous enough weapon that defences also have to key in on him, watch out — because this will unlock Toronto’s attack. Scottie’s propensity for pretty passes combined with the Raptors’ growing ranks of 6’9” slashers will make for some beautiful basketball.
Scottie’s game is still incomplete. He needs to improve defensively, where he often over-helps and gets caught in no-man’s land. His closeouts are clunky because of his awkward gait and his tendency to lunge forward at offensive players, who often drive right by him. So far, his raw physical tools have allowed him to get by on the defensive end, but if he’s going to be an elite defender he’ll need to learn the schemes and where he needs to be on the court.
Scottie has the tools to be a solid player in this league, and he can take the Raptors to the next level. He was a positive contributor as a rookie and will surely continue to be as he gets accustomed to the NBA game. Scottie is already a passing and driving threat, but if he starts to develop a reliable jumper and improves his positioning on defence — watch out! This man is going to be an absolute menace, and his team will be all the better because of it.
How does OG Anunoby fit in the Raptors’ offence?
This offseason, OG made it clear that he wants an expanded offensive role. Nurse has expressed his intention to get OG the ball in situations where he can succeed — but with a pair of All-Star teammates and and ascending sophomore star, there simply isn’t enough of the ball to go around to feed all of the hungry mouths. Where are OG’s touches going to come from? What kinds of touches is he likely to get?
The Raptors were one of the league’s best transition teams a season ago, largely due to their smothering defence and ability to play the passing lanes. With a growing army of 6’8” bodies, the Raptors will look to do the same this year. This will create plenty of transition opportunities for Anunoby, who is effective at sprinting ahead of the defence and using his Lowry-esque booty to seal his defender for an easy finish at the rim. He’s also capable of spraying out to the win for the catch-and-shoot three, where he posted a 39.6% mark on the year.
In the half court, I would love to see some Spain actions. Nurse doesn’t run a lot of pick-and-rolls, but it would be interesting to see the Raptors try Spain to free Anunoby up for some easy shots. He’s usually stronger than the guy guarding him, making it easy for him to seal his man off and dive to the rim for a lob or a dump-off. It’s just as easy to picture OG as the back-screener in this scenario, popping out to the top of the arc for an open three.
One area where OG might not see quite as many touches this year is in isolation. Last season’s iso numbers were simply dreadful — he scored only 0.61 points per possession on 31.5 EFG%, which was in the 11th percentile leaguewide. This doesn’t figure to be a huge detriment overall, though, since the Raptors have other creators who can find him within the flow of the offence. This team loves to drive and kick — and with a growing number of guys (namely, Pascal and Scottie) who command the defence’s attention in the paint, there will be plenty of opportunities for kick-outs to shooters.
It’s clear that OG hasn’t yet unlocked his full offensive potential, but the coaching staff must ask itself: Is the juice really worth the squeeze? In other words, will the team ultimately benefit more from OG realizing his potential rather than, say, Scottie realizing his? Trying to pry that lock open may have to come at the expense of the development of other players on the roster — and knowing how much of a franchise cornerstone the Raptors consider Scottie Barnes to be, it seems unlikely that OG will have a chance to contribute offensively as anything other than a rotational piece.
With a player option looming in 2024-25, OG may decide to head elsewhere if he feels his development isn’t being prioritized. On the other hand, if OG manages to stay healthy this year, he could still have the breakout year everyone was predicting last season. Or, maybe all this talk about OG reportedly being unhappy in his role has been overhyped, and OG is perfectly content being the fourth-best option on what projects to be a dangerous playoff team. Either way, we’ll be rooting for him.
Do the Raptors need a big?
This summer, the Raptors leaned even further into “Project 6’9”, acquiring three more wings in Otto Porter Jr., Josh Jackson and Juancho Hernangomez. With these signings, 14 of the 21 players on the Raptors’ training camp roster stand between 6’7” and 6’10”. With such a roster, the Raptors’ futuristic philosophy is simple — use these alien bodies to shrink the geometry of the court on defence, switching every screen and making it tough for the offense to do anything, ideally culminating in a forced turnover; then, get out quickly in transition, using their physical advantage to break out for an easy bucket.
Last season, the first fully fleshed-out version of the experiment, was a relative success. The Raptors found their form post-All-Star break, rising above the Eastern Conference mediocrity and finishing in 5th position. This success was largely fueled by their defence — they finished with the league’s ninth-best defensive rating, leading the league in deflections per 48 minutes and finishing second in steals per 48. They translated this defensive pressure into offence at the other end, averaging the fifth-most transition points per game in the NBA.
Of course, there are still holes in the system. As with any novel idea, there are going to be kinks that must be worked out before it bears fruit. The half-court game is currently a glaring weakness for this team; over the final 51 games of last season, the Raptors managed just 92.4 points per 100 half-court possessions, good for fifth-last in the league over that span. Their shooting efficiency was abysmal, due in large part to their lack of primary shot creators. The offence simply didn’t generate efficient shot opportunities, as the Raptors ranked in the bottom 10 in generating shots at the rim as well as free-throw attempt rate, and they ranked 20th in three-point frequency. The shots they did take a lot of — midrangers and shots from 5-9 feet — are some of the most inefficient shots in basketball. This shot diet is a recipe for offensive mediocrity.
In order to reliably get efficient offence in the half-court, the media and the fanbase alike have floated the idea of the Raptors acquiring a “traditional” big man, which they lacked last year. There is a great deal of merit to this idea. They’re not going to be an elite three-point shooting team (though I think they can be at least an average one) and they aren’t efficient enough in other spots on the floor to make up for these lost points behind the arc. Having someone who can reliably score at the basket will help them offset some of the inefficiency of the Raptors’ heavy midrange shot diet.
This candidate wouldn’t even have to be an especially dominant inside force — just someone with enough touch around the rim to snag dump-off passes and alley-oop lobs on Scottie and Pascal drives. A big man with some roll gravity would also allow the Raptors to run more ball screen actions. This would help to create mismatches — something the Raptors seek out and thrive on — and would be a solid fallback option when their wings don’t have their mojo. With Scottie and Pascal doing more ballhandling this season, it’ll be a cinch for them to operate these pick-and-rolls. They have the speed and skill to take their man to town if the mismatch is there; otherwise, they have the height to see over the defence to find the roller going downhill.
An added benefit of having a “traditional” big man is that it will also serve as a metagame adjustment to Joel Embiid, for whom the Raptors had no answer in last April’s Raptors-Sixers series. I’m not as high on this reasoning as others in the media, as I don’t think it’s worth building an entire roster around the possibility of facing a single team in the playoffs, but it’s a nice secondary benefit to have.
As reticent as the Raptors organization has been to call anything they’re doing “traditional”, it might behoove them to break the “Project 6’8”” mould at the five, at least for the time being. It will give them a way to stem the tide while Nurse works his shot doctor magic on Scottie, Precious, and others. With the acquisition of longtime marksman Otto Porter and the migration of Fred VanVleet to primarily off the ball, Toronto’s three-point shooting does project to be better this year, although it remains to be seen by how much. Regardless of their shooting, though, the Raptors seriously need to get better in the half-court, and acquiring a big will be the best way to do that.
Former Raptor and bench mob member Jakob Poeltl has been linked to the team in trade rumours, and with the Spurs heading towards a rebuild, a trade would make a heck of a lot of sense for both sides. The Raptors could potentially offload Khem Birch or Malachi Flynn, both of whose fits on this team are shaky at best. They could even try to get some value out of Gary Trent Jr.’s contract before his player option kicks in next summer if they don’t want to commit to him long-term on a bigger deal. Expect the Myles Turner whispers to continue this season as well, as the Pacers could be another potential trade partner for the Raptors.